Crawley Town 0-0 Scunthorpe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Scunthorpe meet at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crawley Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Crawley Town's home record at The People's Pension Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Scunthorpe (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Scunthorpe have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Crawley Town. A 0.90 PPG lead over Scunthorpe (1.30 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Scunthorpe and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Scunthorpe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Scunthorpe — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 69% versus Scunthorpe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Scunthorpe 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Scunthorpe 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.016 / defence 1.404 | Scunthorpe attack 0.640 / defence 1.733. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.114. Scunthorpe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.733 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Crawley Town games / 34 Scunthorpe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 27% | Scunthorpe 19%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Scunthorpe 5.26. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 80% | Scunthorpe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 27% | Scunthorpe 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Crawley Town 1.79 / Scunthorpe 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.016 / def 1.404 | Scunthorpe attack 0.640 / def 1.733 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Scunthorpe xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe kick off?
Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Scunthorpe.
Where is Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe part of?
Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 54% chance of winning, Scunthorpe a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Crawley Town and Scunthorpe will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Scunthorpe?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Scunthorpe 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Scunthorpe in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Scunthorpe (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.02) and Scunthorpe's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Scunthorpe's attack (0.64x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.70
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.80
1.00
Scunthorpe xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
3%
31.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Scunthorpe expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.00 for Scunthorpe, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 12W 8D 12L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Scunthorpe's form line: 4W 10D 18L from 32 games, 0.69 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Crawley Town are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Scunthorpe.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Scunthorpe have gone 1W 5D 10L from 16 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Scunthorpe are on 0.72 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Scunthorpe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Scunthorpe in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 12W 8D 12L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Scunthorpe have gone 4W 10D 18L in their last 32 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Scunthorpe away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.25 PPG; Scunthorpe away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
1
Draws
1
Scunthorpe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Scunthorpe?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Scunthorpe have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Scunthorpe last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Crawley Town 0-0 Scunthorpe.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Scunthorpe?
Scunthorpe have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Crawley Town, 56% for Scunthorpe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Crawley Town and 56% for Scunthorpe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Scunthorpe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Scunthorpe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Crawley Town's games and 56% of Scunthorpe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Scunthorpe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Crawley Town's matches and 56% of Scunthorpe's.
Do Crawley Town and Scunthorpe tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Scunthorpe in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Scunthorpe finished level at 0-0 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.79 xG and Scunthorpe 1.00 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Scunthorpe landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.02 / defence 1.40 against Scunthorpe attack 0.64 / defence 1.73, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 54% | Draw 27% | Scunthorpe 19%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Scunthorpe 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Scunthorpe's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Scunthorpe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.