Crawley Town vs Rochdale – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Rochdale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Rochdale travel to The Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rochdale's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Crawley Town: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Rochdale, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.
The historical record gives Crawley Town a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 64% versus Rochdale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Rochdale 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.28 xG and Rochdale 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.821 / defence 1.330 | Rochdale attack 0.910 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.019. Data: 55 Crawley Town games / 11 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 31% | Rochdale 33%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Rochdale 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Crawley Town dominate the H2H record, yet Rochdale are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rochdale (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | Rochdale 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 35% | Draw 31% | Rochdale 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Crawley Town 1.28 / Rochdale 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.821 / def 1.330 | Rochdale attack 0.910 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rochdale xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Rochdale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at The Broadfield Stadium.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rochdale part of?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 35% chance of winning, Rochdale a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 4W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Rochdale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.82x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.21
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.51
1.23
Rochdale xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.23 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, a 0.64 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 5L across 11 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rochdale by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crawley Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rochdale's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rochdale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.18 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rochdale in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 games (0.64 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rochdale away?
Rochdale's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 0.40 PPG; Rochdale away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Rochdale in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Rochdale runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
1
Draws
0
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
From 5 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 4, Rochdale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Rochdale 1-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 40%, Rochdale 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 60% of games; Rochdale in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 60% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Rochdale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.