Crawley Town 0-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Crawley Town take on Northampton.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Northampton at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.67 conceded. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League Two games this season, Northampton have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Northampton have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Northampton are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Northampton trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 67% versus Northampton 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 67% | Northampton 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.093 / defence 1.142 | Northampton attack 0.843 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 0.926 / away 1.088. Data: 3 Crawley Town games / 3 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 38% | Northampton 31%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Northampton 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 67% | Northampton 33%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Northampton | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 38% | Northampton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.03 / Northampton 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.093 / def 1.142 | Northampton attack 0.843 / def 1.015 | league avg home 0.926 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Northampton xG
46%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Northampton kick off?
Crawley Town vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Crawley Town 0 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Crawley Town vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Northampton part of?
Crawley Town vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 30% chance of winning, Northampton a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-W-L. Northampton (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.09) and Northampton's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
38%
2.61
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.07
1.05
Northampton xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.05 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Northampton sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Northampton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Northampton in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Northampton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Northampton in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Northampton have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Crawley Town or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Northampton in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 67%, Northampton 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Crawley Town) and 33% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Northampton in 67%; Crawley Town have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 33% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Crawley Town's recent games and 33% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Northampton tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Northampton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Crawley Town's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Crawley Town and Northampton drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Northampton 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Northampton landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Northampton attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 30% | Draw 38% | Northampton 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 67%, Northampton 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Northampton's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Crawley Town managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.