Crawley Town 1-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newport County at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Newport County at The People's Pension Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The People's Pension Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 3W 2D 3L this season (8 games, 1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Newport County have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newport County's away record: 4W 2D 3L from 9 road trips in League Two this season (1.56 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Newport County — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Newport County in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Newport County trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Newport County 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Crawley Town 56% | Newport County 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.19 xG and Newport County 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.909 / defence 1.383 | Newport County attack 1.017 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.214. Newport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Crawley Town games / 17 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Newport County 47%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Newport County 2.13. Newport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 75% | Newport County 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Newport County 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Crawley Town 1.19 / Newport County 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.909 / def 1.383 | Newport County attack 1.017 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Newport County (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Newport County xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Newport County kick off?
Crawley Town vs Newport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Newport County.
Where is Crawley Town vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Newport County part of?
Crawley Town vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 24% chance of winning, Newport County a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Crawley Town and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Newport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Newport County in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Newport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.91) and Newport County's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
24%
4.08
28%
3.57
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.90
1.71
Newport County xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
4%
22.54
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.71 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 6W 2D 8L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newport County, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 5L across 16 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Newport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.25 PPG, Newport County on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newport County's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.69 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newport County in 62%.
Last 16 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Newport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Newport County in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Newport County have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Newport County away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.38 PPG; Newport County away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Newport County runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2024, when Crawley Town won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Crawley Town
2
Draws
1
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Newport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 5, Newport County have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Newport County 0-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Newport County?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Crawley Town at 75%, Newport County at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Crawley Town and 88% for Newport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Newport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Crawley Town's games and 75% of Newport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Crawley Town's matches and 88% of Newport County's.
Do Crawley Town and Newport County tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Newport County in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Newport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town and Newport County finished level at 1-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.19 xG and Newport County 1.71 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Newport County attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Newport County 47%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Newport County 81%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Newport County's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.25 PPG, Newport County 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.