Crawley Town 2-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cheltenham make the trip to The Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Crawley Town (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crawley Town at The Broadfield Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cheltenham have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cheltenham have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Crawley Town, 1.00 for Cheltenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 51% versus Cheltenham 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Cheltenham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Cheltenham 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.722 / defence 1.262 | Cheltenham attack 0.798 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.164. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Crawley Town games / 53 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 37%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Cheltenham 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 60% | Cheltenham 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 34% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.12 / Cheltenham 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.722 / def 1.262 | Cheltenham attack 0.798 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Cheltenham xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Cheltenham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Cheltenham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Crawley Town 2 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Cheltenham part of?
Crawley Town vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 34% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Cheltenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Cheltenham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.72x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.80x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.52
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.29
1.17
Cheltenham xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.17 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 13W 12D 28L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cheltenham's form line: 17W 13D 23L from 53 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Cheltenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.21 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crawley Town are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.19 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Cheltenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 13W 12D 28L in their last 53 games (0.96 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 17W 13D 23L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Cheltenham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.08 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
0
Draws
1
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Cheltenham?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Cheltenham have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Cheltenham 3-0 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Cheltenham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crawley Town) and 62% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 27% of games; Cheltenham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 54% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crawley Town's recent games and 62% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Cheltenham 2-0 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.12 xG and Cheltenham 1.17 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cheltenham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Cheltenham attack 0.80 / defence 1.33, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 34% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 37%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Cheltenham 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cheltenham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 0.96 PPG, Cheltenham 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.