Colchester 1-2 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colchester at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colchester vs Hartlepool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Hartlepool travel to JobServe Community Stadium to take on Colchester. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Colchester stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Colchester's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at JobServe Community Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hartlepool — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hartlepool away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Colchester 0.90 PPG, Hartlepool 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Colchester in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hartlepool in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 48% versus Hartlepool 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 42% | Hartlepool 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.13 xG and Hartlepool 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.870 / defence 1.255 | Hartlepool attack 0.585 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.124. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Colchester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Colchester games / 31 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 41% | Draw 35% | Hartlepool 25%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Hartlepool 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colchester are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colchester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Colchester 80% | Hartlepool 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 41% | Draw 35% | Hartlepool 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Colchester 1.13 / Hartlepool 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.870 / def 1.255 | Hartlepool attack 0.585 / def 1.302 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Colchester (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Hartlepool xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Hartlepool kick off?
Colchester vs Hartlepool kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Hartlepool?
Colchester 1 - 2 Hartlepool.
Where is Colchester vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Hartlepool part of?
Colchester vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 41% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Colchester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Colchester and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colchester and Hartlepool in?
Colchester (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Colchester's attack at 0.87x the league average against Hartlepool's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colchester Win
41%
2.46
35%
2.87
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Colchester xG
Total xG
1.96
0.82
Hartlepool xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Colchester and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Colchester and 0.82 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Hartlepool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Colchester have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 10D 14L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Hartlepool's form line: 11W 8D 12L from 31 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Colchester on 1.00 PPG, Hartlepool on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Colchester have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 2W 3D 9L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colchester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Colchester are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 31 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Hartlepool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 11W 8D 12L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Hartlepool away?
Colchester's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.07 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Colchester or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Colchester and Hartlepool runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Colchester's record when hosting Hartlepool specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Colchester
1
Draws
1
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 2, Hartlepool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Hartlepool 1-2 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Hartlepool?
Colchester have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Colchester see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Hartlepool see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 64%, Hartlepool 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Colchester and 29% for Hartlepool.
On the defensive side: Colchester have failed to score in 29% of games; Hartlepool in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Colchester's recent matches and 21% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Colchester's recent games and 29% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Hartlepool defy the odds to beat Colchester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hartlepool beat Colchester 1-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.13 xG and Hartlepool 0.82 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hartlepool outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Hartlepool attack 0.58 / defence 1.30, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 41% | Draw 35% | Hartlepool 25%, with Colchester to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Hartlepool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 42%, Hartlepool 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Hartlepool's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Colchester 1.00 PPG, Hartlepool 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hartlepool win broke the near-deadlock. Hartlepool (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.