Carlisle 0-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Carlisle at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 30 as Carlisle welcome Harrogate Town to Brunton Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carlisle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Carlisle's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Brunton Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brunton Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Carlisle have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Carlisle, 2 for Harrogate Town and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Harrogate Town trading profile (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 46% versus Harrogate Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 49% | Harrogate Town 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 2.19 xG and Harrogate Town 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.375 / defence 0.867 | Harrogate Town attack 1.148 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.057. Carlisle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Carlisle games / 72 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 63% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 17%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Harrogate Town 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Carlisle (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Harrogate Town lead the H2H ledger, but Carlisle carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 50% | Harrogate Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 63% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Carlisle 2.19 / Harrogate Town 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.375 / def 0.867 | Harrogate Town attack 1.148 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Harrogate Town xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Carlisle 0 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town part of?
Carlisle vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 63% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Carlisle and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
Record (3 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 2W.
What form are Carlisle and Harrogate Town in?
Carlisle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.02
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Carlisle xG
Total xG
3.24
1.05
Harrogate Town xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
2%
52.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.05 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Harrogate Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Carlisle have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 27W 19D 26L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Harrogate Town's form line: 20W 17D 35L from 72 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.39 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (16W 10D 9L).
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 10W 6D 19L from 35 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.33 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 72 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 27W 19D 26L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 20W 17D 35L in their last 72 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Harrogate Town away?
Carlisle's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.66 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2022, when Harrogate Town won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carlisle's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Carlisle
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 0, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Harrogate Town 1-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 40%, Harrogate Town 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Carlisle) and 60% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 31% of games; Harrogate Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Carlisle's recent matches and 46% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Carlisle's recent games and 60% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Harrogate Town defy the odds to beat Carlisle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Harrogate Town beat Carlisle 0-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 2.19 xG and Harrogate Town 1.05 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Carlisle fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.38 / defence 0.87 against Harrogate Town attack 1.15 / defence 1.27, drawn from 74/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 63% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 17%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Harrogate Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 49%, Harrogate Town 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.39 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Harrogate Town win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.