Carlisle 2-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brunton Park plays host to Carlisle versus AFC Wimbledon in League Two, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carlisle have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Carlisle have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Brunton Park, Carlisle have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Carlisle are significantly better at Brunton Park than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Carlisle — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 42% versus AFC Wimbledon 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 45% | AFC Wimbledon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 1.002 / defence 1.062 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.856 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.036. Data: 53 Carlisle games / 8 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 23%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Wimbledon 4.35. Carlisle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carlisle if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Carlisle 50% | AFC Wimbledon 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Carlisle 1.52 / AFC Wimbledon 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 1.002 / def 1.062 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.856 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AFC Wimbledon xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon?
Carlisle 2 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 50% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon in?
Carlisle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Carlisle's attack at 1.00x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.86x) against Carlisle's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 53/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.81
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.46
0.94
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
19.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.94 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carlisle come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 15D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Carlisle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 0.79 PPG from 53 outings (7W 21D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Carlisle against 0.79 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Carlisle's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.69 points per game from 26 outings (4W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carlisle are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.04 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 16W 15D 22L in their last 53 games (1.19 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 21D 25L in their last 53 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Carlisle's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.46 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Carlisle or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 4-0 on 12 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carlisle
1
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Carlisle 1-2 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 38%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Carlisle) and 50% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 35% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carlisle's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Carlisle's recent games and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carlisle edge out AFC Wimbledon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat AFC Wimbledon 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.52 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.94 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 50% | Draw 26% | AFC Wimbledon 23%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 45%, AFC Wimbledon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.19 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.