Bradford 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Harrogate Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bradford welcome Harrogate Town to University of Bradford Stadium in League Two (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bradford have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Bradford have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Harrogate Town — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Harrogate Town's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bradford have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Bradford's games and 60% of Harrogate Town's (from Bradford's last 10 home games and Harrogate Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Bradford have won 2, Harrogate Town 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Bradford 1–2 Harrogate Town — a Harrogate Town win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bradford trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 57% versus Harrogate Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 50% | Harrogate Town 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.66 xG and Harrogate Town 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.217 / defence 0.770 | Harrogate Town attack 0.826 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.162. Bradford have a tight defence (rating 0.770), which is pulling Harrogate Town's projected output down. Data: built from Bradford's last 74 games and Harrogate Town's last 76.
Result probabilities: Bradford 59% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.71 | Draw 3.85 | Harrogate Town 6.49. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bradford 70% (last 10 home games) | Harrogate Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 31 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 59% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Bradford 1.66 / Harrogate Town 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.217 / def 0.770 | Harrogate Town attack 0.826 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Bradford (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Harrogate Town xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bradford vs Harrogate Town FAQs
What time does Bradford vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Bradford vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Harrogate Town?
Bradford 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Bradford vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Harrogate Town part of?
Bradford vs Harrogate Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 59% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bradford and Harrogate Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Bradford vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bradford's attack rating (1.22) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bradford's last 74 games and Harrogate Town's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
59%
1.71
26%
3.85
15%
6.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.40
0.74
Harrogate Town xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.49
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
3%
34.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bradford vs Harrogate Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bradford and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Bradford and 0.74 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Harrogate Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bradford come into this having played 74 games, going 32W 20D 22L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.22 PPG from 74 outings (24W 18D 32L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.57 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bradford's home form reads 19W 11D 7L across their last 37 home games, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 37 away games (10W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.14 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
Bradford (Home) vs Harrogate Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bradford
Current Season
Harrogate Town
Current Season
❓ Bradford vs Harrogate Town Form FAQs
What form are Bradford and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 32W 20D 22L in their last 74 games (1.57 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 24W 18D 32L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Harrogate Town away?
Bradford's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.84 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Mar 2024, when Harrogate Town won Harrogate Town 3-0 Bradford.
Bradford's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bradford
1
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Bradford vs Harrogate Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Harrogate Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bradford have won 3, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bradford and Harrogate Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: Bradford 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Harrogate Town?
Harrogate Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 57%, Harrogate Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Bradford) and 46% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Harrogate Town in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bradford vs Harrogate Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bradford and Harrogate Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Bradford's games and 54% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bradford and Harrogate Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Bradford's recent games and 46% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Harrogate Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bradford's recent matches and 51% of Harrogate Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bradford edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.66 xG and Harrogate Town 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.22 / defence 0.77 against Harrogate Town attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 74/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 59% | Draw 26% | Harrogate Town 15%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 50%, Harrogate Town 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.57 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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