Bradford 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Crawley Town travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bradford carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bradford, 2 for Crawley Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 56% versus Crawley Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.68 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.990 / defence 0.901 | Crawley Town attack 0.884 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.043. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Bradford games / 61 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 57% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Crawley Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 40% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 57% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Bradford 1.68 / Crawley Town 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.990 / def 0.901 | Crawley Town attack 0.884 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Bradford (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Crawley Town kick off?
Bradford vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Bradford 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Bradford vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Crawley Town part of?
Bradford vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 57% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bradford and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Bradford 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Bradford and Crawley Town in?
Bradford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.99x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.09
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.51
0.83
Crawley Town xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
29.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Bradford and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Bradford and 0.83 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 21W 21D 19L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 20W 14D 27L from 61 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.38 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (9W 14D 8L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 8W 8D 15L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 62%.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 21W 21D 19L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Crawley Town away?
Bradford's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.32 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bradford's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Bradford
2
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 0, Crawley Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Bradford 2-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 64%, Crawley Town 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bradford) and 55% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bradford's games and 61% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bradford's recent games and 55% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bradford and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.68 xG and Crawley Town 0.83 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 1.41, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 57% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 18%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.38 PPG, Crawley Town 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.