Barrow 1-3 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Barrow take on Mansfield Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Barrow host Mansfield Town at The Dunes Hotel Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Barrow — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Barrow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barrow at The Dunes Hotel Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mansfield Town — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Barrow, 0 for Mansfield Town and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Barrow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Barrow in-play and half-time data (24 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (24 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 50% versus Mansfield Town 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 38% | Mansfield Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 1.06 xG and Mansfield Town 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.799 / defence 1.139 | Mansfield Town attack 0.758 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.139. Barrow's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Barrow games / 24 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 34% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Mansfield Town 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Barrow 70% | Mansfield Town 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Dunes Hotel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 34% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Barrow 1.06 / Mansfield Town 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.799 / def 1.139 | Mansfield Town attack 0.758 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mansfield Town xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Barrow vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Mansfield Town?
Barrow 1 - 3 Mansfield Town.
Where is Barrow vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Dunes Hotel Stadium.
What competition is Barrow vs Mansfield Town part of?
Barrow vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 34% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Barrow and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Mansfield Town?
Record (1 meetings): Barrow 1W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Barrow and Mansfield Town in?
Barrow (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Barrow's attack rating (0.80) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Barrow's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.92
36%
2.80
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Barrow xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
Mansfield Town xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Barrow and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Barrow and 0.98 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Barrow have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 6W 8D 10L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Barrow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mansfield Town's form line: 11W 5D 8L from 24 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mansfield Town are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Barrow.
Venue Form
On home soil, Barrow have posted 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Barrow are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 62%.
Last 24 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 11W 5D 8L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Mansfield Town away?
Barrow's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.00 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Barrow's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Barrow
1
Draws
3
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Mansfield Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Barrow have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Barrow 1-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Barrow and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Barrow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 67%, Mansfield Town 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Barrow) and 44% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Barrow's games and 56% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Barrow vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Barrow's recent games and 44% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Barrow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Barrow 1-3 at The Dunes Hotel Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 1.06 xG and Mansfield Town 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mansfield Town outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Mansfield Town attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 34% | Draw 36% | Mansfield Town 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mansfield Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 38%, Mansfield Town 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (24 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (24 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Barrow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.