AFC Wimbledon 3-2 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 17 as AFC Wimbledon welcome Harrogate Town to The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Harrogate Town stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Harrogate Town have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 0.50 (Harrogate Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Harrogate Town in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 57% versus Harrogate Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 46% | Harrogate Town 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.10 xG and Harrogate Town 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.763 / defence 1.216 | Harrogate Town attack 0.839 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.043. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Harrogate Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 AFC Wimbledon games / 61 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 34%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Harrogate Town 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 60% | Harrogate Town 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.10 / Harrogate Town 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.763 / def 1.216 | Harrogate Town attack 0.839 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Harrogate Town xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon 3 - 2 Harrogate Town.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 36% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.36
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.17
1.06
Harrogate Town xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.06 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 61 games, going 10W 23D 28L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.07 PPG from 61 outings (17W 14D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 0.87 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 4W 16D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 0.97 points per game from 30 outings (8W 5D 17L).
The Goals Picture
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.25 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 10W 23D 28L in their last 61 games (0.87 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 17W 14D 30L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Harrogate Town away?
Harrogate Town's away record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.93 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AFC Wimbledon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
0
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town?
AFC Wimbledon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 60%, Harrogate Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AFC Wimbledon) and 60% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 37% of games; Harrogate Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 43% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 60% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Wimbledon edge out Harrogate Town 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Harrogate Town 3-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.10 xG and Harrogate Town 1.06 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Harrogate Town outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.76 / defence 1.22 against Harrogate Town attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 36% | Draw 30% | Harrogate Town 34%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 46%, Harrogate Town 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.87 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Wimbledon win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.