Wrexham 2-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 7 as Wrexham welcome Crawley Town to STōK Cae Ras. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wrexham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at STōK Cae Ras this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Wrexham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Wrexham have won 2, Crawley Town 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 4–1 with Wrexham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wrexham in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 48% versus Crawley Town 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 54% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.68 xG and Crawley Town 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.349 / defence 0.942 | Crawley Town attack 0.730 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.193. Wrexham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 6 Wrexham games / 5 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Crawley Town 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wrexham 30% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Wrexham 1.68 / Crawley Town 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.349 / def 0.942 | Crawley Town attack 0.730 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Wrexham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Wrexham 2 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Wrexham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Crawley Town part of?
Wrexham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 57% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wrexham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Wrexham 2W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Crawley Town in?
Wrexham (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.35) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.03
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.50
0.82
Crawley Town xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
3%
30.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Wrexham and 0.82 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wrexham come into this having played 52 games, going 30W 11D 11L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Wrexham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.58 PPG from 52 outings (25W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.94 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wrexham's home form reads 20W 3D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (12W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wrexham are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.63 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 30W 11D 11L in their last 52 games (1.94 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 7D 20L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Crawley Town away?
Wrexham's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.52 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wrexham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Wrexham have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2024, when Wrexham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wrexham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Wrexham
0
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 4, Crawley Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 44%, Crawley Town 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Wrexham and 56% for Crawley Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Crawley Town in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Wrexham's recent matches and 52% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Wrexham's matches and 56% of Crawley Town's.
Do Wrexham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wrexham edge out Crawley Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Crawley Town 2-1 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.68 xG and Crawley Town 0.82 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.35 / defence 0.94 against Crawley Town attack 0.73 / defence 0.95, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 57% | Draw 25% | Crawley Town 18%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 54%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.94 PPG, Crawley Town 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.