Wigan 1-1 Oxford United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wigan at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Oxford United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Oxford United at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 1 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at DW Stadium, Wigan have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DW Stadium this season.
Across all League One games this season, Oxford United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oxford United's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Wigan have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wigan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Oxford United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wigan have won 1, Oxford United 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Oxford United in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wigan 64% and Oxford United 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 60% | Oxford United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.63 xG and Oxford United 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.128 / defence 1.154 | Oxford United attack 1.105 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.261. Oxford United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Wigan games / 28 Oxford United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 39% | Draw 24% | Oxford United 38%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Oxford United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 70% | Oxford United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Oxford United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 39% | Draw 24% | Oxford United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Wigan 1.63 / Oxford United 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.128 / def 1.154 | Oxford United attack 1.105 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Wigan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Oxford United xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Oxford United kick off?
Wigan vs Oxford United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 February 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Oxford United?
Wigan 1 - 1 Oxford United.
Where is Wigan vs Oxford United being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Oxford United part of?
Wigan vs Oxford United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Oxford United?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 39% chance of winning, Oxford United a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Oxford United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wigan and Oxford United will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Oxford United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Oxford United?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Oxford United 0W.
What form are Wigan and Oxford United in?
Wigan (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Oxford United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wigan's attack rating (1.13) and Oxford United's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oxford United's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
39%
2.59
24%
4.22
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wigan xG
Total xG
3.24
1.61
Oxford United xG
2.59
39%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.94
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Oxford United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Wigan and Oxford United expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wigan and 1.61 for Oxford United, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Oxford United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 17W 4D 4L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oxford United's form line: 12W 6D 7L from 25 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Oxford United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oxford United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wigan have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L).
On the road, Oxford United have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wigan are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Oxford United are on 1.84 scored and 1.24 conceded. Oxford United's attacking output running into Wigan's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Oxford United in 68%.
Defensively: Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Oxford United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Oxford United in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 17W 4D 4L in their last 25 games (2.20 PPG), while Oxford United have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Oxford United away?
Wigan's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.92 PPG; Oxford United away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Wigan or Oxford United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Oxford United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wigan and Oxford United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Wigan's record when hosting Oxford United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
1
Oxford United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Oxford United?
From 4 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Oxford United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Oxford United last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Oxford United 4-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Oxford United?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Oxford United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wigan at 67%, Oxford United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wigan) and 58% (Oxford United).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Oxford United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Oxford United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Oxford United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Wigan's games and 67% of Oxford United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Oxford United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wigan's recent games and 58% of Oxford United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Oxford United tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oxford United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Oxford United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan and Oxford United finished level at 1-1 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.63 xG and Oxford United 1.61 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.13 / defence 1.15 against Oxford United attack 1.10 / defence 1.30, drawn from 25/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 39% | Draw 24% | Oxford United 38%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 60%, Oxford United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Oxford United's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.