Wigan 1-2 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wigan face Exeter City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wigan welcome Exeter City to DW Stadium in League One (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wigan — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Wigan at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Wigan are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Exeter City stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Exeter City's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Wigan at 1.40 PPG versus Exeter City's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Wigan have won 1, Exeter City 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Wigan 2–0 Exeter City — a Wigan win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wigan trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Exeter City trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 57% versus Exeter City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 41% | Exeter City 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.66 xG and Exeter City 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.974 / defence 0.892 | Exeter City attack 0.823 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.169. Exeter City's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Data: built from Wigan's last 30 games and Exeter City's last 77.
Result probabilities: Wigan 56% | Draw 24% | Exeter City 19%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.77 | Draw 4.12 | Exeter City 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wigan 30% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 56% | Draw 24% | Exeter City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Wigan 1.66 / Exeter City 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.974 / def 0.892 | Exeter City attack 0.823 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Wigan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Exeter City xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wigan vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Wigan vs Exeter City kick off?
Wigan vs Exeter City kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Exeter City?
Wigan 1 - 2 Exeter City.
Where is Wigan vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Exeter City part of?
Wigan vs Exeter City is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 56% chance of winning, Exeter City a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wigan and Exeter City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Wigan vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wigan's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wigan's last 30 games and Exeter City's last 77 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.12
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.52
0.86
Exeter City xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
27.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wigan vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wigan and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wigan and 0.86 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Exeter City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan's recent record stands at 23W 21D 32L from 76 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 35L across 76 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.18 PPG, Exeter City on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 14W 7D 16L from their last 37 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 10W 6D 21L across their last 37 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.13 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
Wigan (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wigan
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Wigan vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Wigan and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 23W 21D 32L in their last 76 games (1.18 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 25W 16D 35L in their last 76 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Exeter City away?
Wigan's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.32 PPG; Exeter City away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan's record when hosting Exeter City specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
3
Draws
1
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Wigan vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Exeter City?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Wigan have won 2, Exeter City have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Wigan 2-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Exeter City?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 49%, Exeter City 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wigan) and 49% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 27% of games; Exeter City in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wigan vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wigan and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Wigan's recent matches and 40% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wigan and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wigan's recent games and 49% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Wigan's recent matches and 73% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Exeter City defy the odds to beat Wigan 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Wigan 1-2 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.66 xG and Exeter City 0.86 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Exeter City outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Exeter City attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 56% | Draw 24% | Exeter City 19%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Exeter City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 41%, Exeter City 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Exeter City's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.18 PPG, Exeter City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Exeter City win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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