Wigan 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Derby encounter.

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Analysis

Derby make the trip to DW Stadium to face Wigan in League One (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Wigan (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Wigan at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Derby have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derby are 0.70 PPG clear of Wigan over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Wigan edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Wigan 2–1 Derby — a Wigan win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Wigan — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Derby — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 58% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 43% | Derby 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Wigan surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.22 xG and Derby 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.058 / defence 0.939 | Derby attack 1.233 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.140. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.233, which lifts their away xG to 1.32. Data: built from Wigan's last 22 games and Derby's last 67.

Result probabilities: Wigan 33% | Draw 29% | Derby 38%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 3.02 | Draw 3.46 | Derby 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wigan 50% (last 10 home games) | Derby 50% (last 10 away games).

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