Wigan 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Charlton meet at The Brick Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Wigan (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Wigan haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 5W 3D 2L at The Brick Community Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Brick Community Stadium.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charlton haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Wigan against 1.50 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wigan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wigan 56% and Charlton 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 46% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.954 / defence 0.852 | Charlton attack 0.992 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.223. Data: 46 Wigan games / 46 Charlton games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Wigan 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Wigan 40% | Charlton 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: The Brick Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Wigan 1.32 / Charlton 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.954 / def 0.852 | Charlton attack 0.992 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Wigan (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Charlton xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Charlton kick off?
Wigan vs Charlton kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at The Brick Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Wigan 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Wigan vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Brick Community Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Charlton part of?
Wigan vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 43% chance of winning, Charlton a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Wigan and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Wigan 2W | Draws 1 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Wigan and Charlton in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Wigan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wigan's attack rating (0.95) and Charlton's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.99x) against Wigan's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.62
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.36
1.03
Charlton xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wigan and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Wigan and 1.03 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 10D 16L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. Wigan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.15 PPG from 46 outings (11W 20D 15L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. Charlton haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Wigan against 1.15 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Wigan's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (3W 12D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 74%.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Pre-Season
Charlton
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 20W 10D 16L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Charlton have gone 11W 20D 15L in their last 46 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Charlton away?
Wigan's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.87 PPG; Charlton away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Wigan or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charlton in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wigan
1
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Charlton 2-1 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 39%, Charlton 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Wigan) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Wigan's games and 74% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wigan vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Wigan's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Charlton tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charlton in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Wigan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Wigan 0-1 at The Brick Community Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.32 xG and Charlton 1.03 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wigan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Charlton attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 43% | Draw 28% | Charlton 29%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 46%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.52 PPG, Charlton 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.