Sunderland 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 41 sees Gillingham travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Sunderland have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sunderland have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadium of Light — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League One this season, Gillingham have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sunderland) versus 1.50 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sunderland, 0 for Gillingham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gillingham trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Gillingham 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 62% | Gillingham 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.46 xG and Gillingham 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.186 / defence 1.023 | Gillingham attack 0.779 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.165. Data: 39 Sunderland games / 40 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 23%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Gillingham 4.35. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 60% | Gillingham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 49% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Sunderland 1.46 / Gillingham 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.186 / def 1.023 | Gillingham attack 0.779 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gillingham xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Gillingham kick off?
Sunderland vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Gillingham?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Sunderland vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Gillingham part of?
Sunderland vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 49% chance of winning, Gillingham a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sunderland and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Gillingham in?
Sunderland (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.19x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.51
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.39
0.93
Gillingham xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.93 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 19W 10D 10L from 39 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 19L across 39 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 13W 2D 4L from 19 games — 2.16 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gillingham's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.77 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 39 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 19W 10D 10L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Gillingham away?
Sunderland's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 2.16 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gillingham in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Gillingham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sunderland
0
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Gillingham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Sunderland 1-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Gillingham?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 53%, Gillingham 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sunderland) and 32% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gillingham in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Gillingham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sunderland's games and 58% of Gillingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sunderland's recent games and 32% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Gillingham tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Gillingham 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.46 xG and Gillingham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.19 / defence 1.02 against Gillingham attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 49% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 23%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 62%, Gillingham 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gillingham's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.