Stockport County vs Mansfield Town – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Mansfield Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mansfield Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County at Edgeley Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mansfield Town's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mansfield Town have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Mansfield Town have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Stockport County's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Mansfield Town winning.
It is worth noting that Mansfield Town have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 59% versus Mansfield Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 61% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.20 xG and Mansfield Town 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.270 / defence 1.016 | Mansfield Town attack 0.701 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.400. Stockport County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Stockport County games / 51 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 63% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 15%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Mansfield Town 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Mansfield Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 63% | Draw 22% | Mansfield Town 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 57% | xG Stockport County 2.20 / Mansfield Town 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.270 / def 1.016 | Mansfield Town attack 0.701 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Mansfield Town xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Edgeley Park.
Where is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Stockport County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 63% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stockport County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Record (8 meetings): Stockport County 1W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 5W.
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (0.70x) against Stockport County's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.57
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.19
1.00
Mansfield Town xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
61.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.00 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Mansfield Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 25W 10D 16L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mansfield Town's form line: 18W 17D 16L from 51 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Mansfield Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Stockport County against 1.39 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.84 PPG from 25 outings (14W 4D 7L).
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 7W 9D 9L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.37 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 25W 10D 16L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 18W 17D 16L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Stockport County's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.84 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stockport County
2
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Stockport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 64%, Mansfield Town 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Stockport County) and 36% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 32%; Mansfield Town in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stockport County's games and 48% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Stockport County's recent games and 36% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.