Stevenage vs Plymouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 37%, yet in-form Plymouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stevenage vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Plymouth travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 2D 3L at Lamex Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plymouth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stevenage, 1 for Plymouth and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Plymouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.35 xG and Plymouth 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.925 / defence 1.030 | Plymouth attack 0.967 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 50 Stevenage games / 50 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 34%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Plymouth 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plymouth (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Plymouth 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 37% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Stevenage 1.35 / Plymouth 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.925 / def 1.030 | Plymouth attack 0.967 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Plymouth xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Plymouth kick off?
Stevenage vs Plymouth is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Plymouth part of?
Stevenage vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 37% chance of winning, Plymouth a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stevenage and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.93) and Plymouth's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.44
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Plymouth xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.27 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 50 games, going 19W 15D 16L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (23W 8D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.44 PPG, Plymouth on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 13W 8D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.60 points per game from 25 outings (12W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Plymouth away?
Stevenage's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.88 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Plymouth in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Plymouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Plymouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 56% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 48% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 56% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Plymouth tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.