Stevenage 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Plymouth travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 4D 1L at Lamex Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.10 PPG, Plymouth 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 34% | Plymouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.29 xG and Plymouth 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.877 / defence 0.906 | Plymouth attack 1.183 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.137. Data: 67 Stevenage games / 23 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 35%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Plymouth 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 40% | Plymouth 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Stevenage 1.29 / Plymouth 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.877 / def 0.906 | Plymouth attack 1.183 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Plymouth xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Plymouth kick off?
Stevenage vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 1 January 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Stevenage vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Plymouth part of?
Stevenage vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 38% chance of winning, Plymouth a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stevenage and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in?
Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Plymouth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.88) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.71
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.51
1.22
Plymouth xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.22 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 67 games, going 25W 18D 24L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.06 PPG from 67 outings (19W 14D 34L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.39 PPG, Plymouth on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (7W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.16 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 25W 18D 24L in their last 67 games (1.39 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 19W 14D 34L in their last 67 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Plymouth away?
Stevenage's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.56 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Plymouth in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Plymouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Plymouth 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stevenage) and 50% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Plymouth in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 34% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stevenage's recent games and 50% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Plymouth tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.29 xG and Plymouth 1.22 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Plymouth attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 38% | Draw 27% | Plymouth 35%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 34%, Plymouth 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.39 PPG, Plymouth 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.