Stevenage 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Peterborough meet at Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Stevenage's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Stevenage have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Peterborough (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Stevenage's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Peterborough edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Stevenage 1–2 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Peterborough 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 44% | Peterborough 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Stevenage surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Peterborough have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 2.21 xG and Peterborough 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.108 / defence 0.997 | Peterborough attack 0.963 / defence 1.532. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.175. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.532 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Stevenage's last 75 games and Peterborough's last 76.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 62% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 18%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.62 | Draw 4.92 | Peterborough 5.52. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 62% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Stevenage 2.21 / Peterborough 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.108 / def 0.997 | Peterborough attack 0.963 / def 1.532 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Peterborough xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Peterborough kick off?
Stevenage vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Stevenage vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Peterborough part of?
Stevenage vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 62% chance of winning, Peterborough a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stevenage and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stevenage vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.96x) against Stevenage's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 75 games and Peterborough's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
62%
1.62
20%
4.92
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Stevenage xG
Total xG
3.34
1.13
Peterborough xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
2%
50.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.13 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 30W 21D 24L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 30W 16D 29L from 75 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Stevenage against 1.41 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 36 home games (17W 9D 10L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 12W 6D 18L from their last 36 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 65%.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 30W 21D 24L in their last 75 games (1.48 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 30W 16D 29L in their last 75 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Peterborough away?
Stevenage's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.67 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Peterborough in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Peterborough?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 42%, Peterborough 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 67% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stevenage's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Stevenage's matches and 67% of Peterborough's.
Do Stevenage and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stevenage's recent matches and 69% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Peterborough finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 2.21 xG and Peterborough 1.13 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.53, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 62% | Draw 20% | Peterborough 18%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 44%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.48 PPG, Peterborough 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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