Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stevenage at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 April 2027, 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 1.20 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stevenage have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while AFC Wimbledon have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The historical record gives Stevenage a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus AFC Wimbledon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | AFC Wimbledon 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.91 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.763 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 56 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 61% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 16%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | AFC Wimbledon 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 40% | AFC Wimbledon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Apr 2027, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 61% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.91 / AFC Wimbledon 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.763 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.86
AFC Wimbledon xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Tuesday 27 April 2027 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 61% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (4 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.98x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.28
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.78
0.86
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.77
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
43.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.86 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 15D 18L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon's form line: 18W 11D 27L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.50 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 2.00 PPG from 28 outings (16W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 8W 5D 15L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 23W 15D 18L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Stevenage's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.00 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stevenage or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Stevenage) and 61% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Stevenage's recent games and 61% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.