Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Shrewsbury's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Stevenage have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stevenage are 0.70 PPG clear of Shrewsbury over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Shrewsbury, 1 for Stevenage and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Shrewsbury 0–2 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 38% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 45% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.927 / defence 1.098 | Stevenage attack 1.084 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.144. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 72 games and Stevenage's last 25.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.85 | Draw 3.67 | Stevenage 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 40% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 28 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Shrewsbury 1.30 / Stevenage 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.927 / def 1.098 | Stevenage attack 1.084 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Stevenage xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage part of?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 35% chance of winning, Stevenage a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shrewsbury and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shrewsbury vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.93) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (1.08x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 72 games and Stevenage's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.67
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.67
1.36
Stevenage xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.36 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 26W 10D 35L from 71 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 36W 20D 15L across 71 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 18W 4D 14L from their last 36 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 14W 12D 10L across their last 36 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 26W 10D 35L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 36W 20D 15L in their last 71 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Stevenage away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.61 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Stevenage have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 0, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 47%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shrewsbury) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 31%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 39% of games; Stevenage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 81% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.30 xG and Stevenage 1.36 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Stevenage attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 38%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 45%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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