Shrewsbury 1-2 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Plymouth (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shrewsbury face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Shrewsbury welcome Plymouth to Montgomery Waters Meadow. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shrewsbury have posted 6W 1D 3L at Montgomery Waters Meadow — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plymouth — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Plymouth have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Shrewsbury's 0 victories.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Plymouth winning.
It is worth noting that Plymouth have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 45% versus Plymouth 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Plymouth 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.083 / defence 1.189 | Plymouth attack 1.185 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.118. Data: 87 Shrewsbury games / 87 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 43%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Plymouth 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 60% | Plymouth 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Shrewsbury 1.34 / Plymouth 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.083 / def 1.189 | Plymouth attack 1.185 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Plymouth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Plymouth kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Shrewsbury 1 - 2 Plymouth.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth part of?
Shrewsbury vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 32% chance of winning, Plymouth a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Shrewsbury and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Plymouth in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shrewsbury's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 87/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.91
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.91
1.58
Plymouth xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
7%
15.15
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.58 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shrewsbury come into this having played 87 games, going 28W 22D 37L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.91 PPG from 87 outings (49W 19D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shrewsbury's home form reads 19W 10D 14L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.58 points per game from 43 outings (18W 14D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.60 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 28W 22D 37L in their last 87 games (1.22 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 49W 19D 19L in their last 87 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Plymouth away?
Plymouth's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.56 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Plymouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Plymouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Shrewsbury 1-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 51%, Plymouth 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Shrewsbury) and 51% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 30%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 56% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 51% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Plymouth tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Shrewsbury 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Shrewsbury 1-2 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.34 xG and Plymouth 1.58 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.08 / defence 1.19 against Plymouth attack 1.19 / defence 0.91, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 43%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Plymouth 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Plymouth's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.