Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 15 as Sheffield Wednesday welcome Lincoln to Hillsborough. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Hillsborough this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hillsborough. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Lincoln have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sheffield Wednesday at 1.30 PPG versus Lincoln's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 46% versus Lincoln 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sheffield Wednesday 31% | Lincoln 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 xG and Lincoln 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.829 / defence 0.952 | Lincoln attack 0.933 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.322. Data: 13 Sheffield Wednesday games / 13 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Lincoln 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | Lincoln 67%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 / Lincoln 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.829 / def 0.952 | Lincoln attack 0.933 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lincoln xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 1 Lincoln.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 35% chance of winning, Lincoln a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (0.83) and Lincoln's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.53
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.31
1.17
Lincoln xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.17 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Sheffield Wednesday have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 5W 5D 3L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.54 PPG, Lincoln on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Sheffield Wednesday are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln in 62%.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Lincoln away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.00 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lincoln in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sheffield Wednesday
3
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
From 4 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Lincoln have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 40%, Lincoln 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 60% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lincoln in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 60% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 60% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday and Lincoln finished level at 1-1 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 15, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.13 xG and Lincoln 1.17 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Lincoln attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 35% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 37%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 31%, Lincoln 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.54 PPG, Lincoln 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.