Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Ipswich travel to Hillsborough to take on Sheffield Wednesday. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sheffield Wednesday stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Ipswich have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Ipswich have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sheffield Wednesday at 1.50 PPG versus Ipswich's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Ipswich 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (26 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (26 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 54% versus Ipswich 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 46% | Ipswich 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.52 xG and Ipswich 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.232 / defence 1.056 | Ipswich attack 1.031 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.232. Data: 26 Sheffield Wednesday games / 28 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 34%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Ipswich 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 70% | Ipswich 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.52 / Ipswich 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.232 / def 1.056 | Ipswich attack 1.031 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ipswich xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 0 Ipswich.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 42% chance of winning, Ipswich a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (1.23) and Ipswich's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.02
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.86
1.34
Ipswich xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.34 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 10W 10D 6L from 26 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 8L across 26 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sheffield Wednesday on 1.54 PPG, Ipswich on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Sheffield Wednesday are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ipswich's away record stands at 4W 2D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.69 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 10W 10D 6L in their last 26 games (1.54 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Ipswich away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.00 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ipswich in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ipswich have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Ipswich won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sheffield Wednesday
3
Draws
4
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich?
From 8 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 1, Ipswich have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 64%, Ipswich 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 54% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ipswich in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 46% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 54% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Wednesday edge out Ipswich 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Ipswich 1-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.52 xG and Ipswich 1.34 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ipswich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.23 / defence 1.06 against Ipswich attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 42% | Draw 25% | Ipswich 34%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 46%, Ipswich 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (26 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ipswich's trading profile (26 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sheffield Wednesday 1.54 PPG, Ipswich 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Wednesday win broke the near-deadlock. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Ipswich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.