Portsmouth 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in League One, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Monday 31 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Portsmouth's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portsmouth have posted 4W 3D 3L at Fratton Park — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Charlton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.40 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Portsmouth lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Charlton half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 35% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 42% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.20 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.913 / defence 1.038 | Charlton attack 0.706 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.254. Data: 26 Portsmouth games / 27 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 50% | Charlton 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Portsmouth 1.20 / Charlton 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.913 / def 1.038 | Charlton attack 0.706 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Charlton kick off?
Portsmouth vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 31 January 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Portsmouth 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Portsmouth vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Charlton part of?
Portsmouth vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 42% chance of winning, Charlton a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Portsmouth and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Portsmouth 0W | Draws 1 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.91) and Charlton's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.71x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
42%
2.37
30%
3.33
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.12
0.92
Charlton xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.92 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portsmouth come into this having played 26 games, going 10W 8D 8L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.23 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Portsmouth's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portsmouth are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Charlton in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 games (1.46 PPG), while Charlton have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Charlton away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.75 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Charlton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 3-0 on 17 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
3
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 2, Charlton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Charlton 1-3 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 42%, Charlton 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Portsmouth) and 50% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 67% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Portsmouth's recent games and 50% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Charlton tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charlton in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Portsmouth 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Portsmouth 1-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.20 xG and Charlton 0.92 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charlton outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Charlton attack 0.71 / defence 1.19, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 42% | Draw 30% | Charlton 28%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 42%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Charlton's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.46 PPG, Charlton 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.