Plymouth 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 39%, yet in-form Charlton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Charlton make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Charlton are 0.60 PPG clear of Plymouth in recent League One fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Plymouth register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Charlton in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Plymouth 0W, Charlton 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 64% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 59% | Charlton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.983 / defence 1.114 | Charlton attack 0.782 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.297. Data: 22 Plymouth games / 22 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 70% | Charlton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Plymouth 1.26 / Charlton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.983 / def 1.114 | Charlton attack 0.782 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Charlton kick off?
Plymouth vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Charlton?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Plymouth vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Charlton part of?
Plymouth vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Plymouth and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Charlton in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.98) and Charlton's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.78x) against Plymouth's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.55
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.39
1.13
Charlton xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.13 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 10W 7D 5L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 8W 5D 9L from 22 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Plymouth against 1.32 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.36 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Charlton in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Charlton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Charlton have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Charlton away?
Plymouth's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.80 PPG; Charlton away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Charlton in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charlton won 5-1 on 16 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Charlton have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Plymouth 2-0 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Plymouth, 70% for Charlton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Plymouth and 60% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Plymouth's games and 70% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plymouth's matches and 60% of Charlton's.
Do Plymouth and Charlton tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Charlton in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Charlton 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.26 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 0.78 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 59%, Charlton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charlton's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.68 PPG, Charlton 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.