Plymouth vs Burton Albion – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 8 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.50 (Burton Albion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plymouth register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Burton Albion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plymouth have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Plymouth winning.
The historical record gives Plymouth a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Burton Albion trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.60 xG and Burton Albion 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.059 / defence 1.065 | Burton Albion attack 0.978 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 50 Plymouth games / 50 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 43% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 30%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Burton Albion 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 80% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 43% | Draw 27% | Burton Albion 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Plymouth 1.60 / Burton Albion 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.059 / def 1.065 | Burton Albion attack 0.978 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Burton Albion xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plymouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Record (6 meetings): Plymouth 4W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.72
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.92
1.32
Burton Albion xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.32 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 8D 19L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 17D 19L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.57 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 10D 10L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 24W 8D 19L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 17D 19L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Plymouth's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Burton Albion have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Burton Albion 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plymouth) and 52% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 60% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plymouth's recent games and 52% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.