Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plymouth (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plymouth face Burton Albion.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 8 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plymouth have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Burton Albion have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Plymouth winning.
The historical record gives Plymouth a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Burton Albion trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 55% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 58% | Burton Albion 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 2.14 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.264 / defence 0.917 | Burton Albion attack 0.832 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 Plymouth games / 53 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 62% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 15%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Burton Albion 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 62% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Plymouth 2.14 / Burton Albion 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.264 / def 0.917 | Burton Albion attack 0.832 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Burton Albion xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Plymouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 62% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plymouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Record (6 meetings): Plymouth 4W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.35
15%
6.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Plymouth xG
Total xG
3.16
1.02
Burton Albion xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
6.48
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
55.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.02 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 8D 19L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 18D 20L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (12W 4D 10L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 26W 8D 19L in their last 53 games (1.62 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Plymouth's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.54 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
From 7 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 58%, Burton Albion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Plymouth) and 54% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Plymouth's games and 58% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Plymouth's matches and 54% of Burton Albion's.
Do Plymouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 8, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 2.14 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 62% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 15%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Burton Albion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 58%, Burton Albion 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.