Plymouth 2-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 41%, yet in-form Bolton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Plymouth vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Bolton at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 9 clean sheets from 10 home games (90%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Park. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Plymouth are significantly better at Home Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bolton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bolton are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plymouth have won 2, Bolton 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Bolton in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 43% versus Bolton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 45% | Bolton 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.09 xG and Bolton 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.976 / defence 0.785 | Bolton attack 0.934 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.075. Plymouth's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Plymouth games / 51 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 33% | Bolton 25%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Bolton 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 0% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 41% | Draw 33% | Bolton 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Plymouth 1.09 / Bolton 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.976 / def 0.785 | Bolton attack 0.934 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bolton xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Bolton kick off?
Plymouth vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Plymouth 2 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Plymouth vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Bolton part of?
Plymouth vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 41% chance of winning, Bolton a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Plymouth and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bolton?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 2W | Draws 0 | Bolton 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Bolton in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Bolton (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
41%
2.41
33%
3.00
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.88
0.79
Bolton xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.79 for Bolton, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 11D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton's form line: 23W 12D 16L from 51 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.75 PPG, Bolton on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.08 PPG from 25 outings (16W 4D 5L).
On the road, Bolton have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Bolton in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 26W 11D 14L in their last 51 games (1.75 PPG), while Bolton have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Bolton away?
Plymouth's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.08 PPG; Bolton away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bolton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bolton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Plymouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Plymouth
1
Draws
2
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 3, Bolton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Plymouth 1-2 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Bolton?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 32%, Bolton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Plymouth) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bolton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Plymouth's recent matches and 44% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Plymouth's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Bolton tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bolton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Bolton 2-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 6, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.09 xG and Bolton 0.79 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 0.79 against Bolton attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 41% | Draw 33% | Bolton 25%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 45%, Bolton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bolton's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.75 PPG, Bolton 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.