Peterborough 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Stevenage meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 3W 3D 4L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Stevenage and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 67% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.111 / defence 1.202 | Stevenage attack 0.680 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.272. Data: 55 Peterborough games / 55 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Stevenage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stevenage (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Peterborough 60% | Stevenage 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Peterborough 1.34 / Stevenage 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.111 / def 1.202 | Stevenage attack 0.680 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stevenage xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Stevenage kick off?
Peterborough vs Stevenage kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Peterborough vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stevenage part of?
Peterborough vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 43% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Peterborough and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.68x) against Peterborough's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
43%
2.32
28%
3.52
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
Stevenage xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.04 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 12D 17L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (23W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Peterborough against 1.55 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.16 scored and 0.93 conceded. Peterborough's scoring rate against Stevenage's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 23W 16D 16L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stevenage away?
Peterborough's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.70 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 63%, Stevenage 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Peterborough and 52% for Stevenage. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 37%; Stevenage in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Peterborough's recent matches and 44% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Stevenage's.
Do Peterborough and Stevenage tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Stevenage 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.34 xG and Stevenage 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Stevenage attack 0.68 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 43% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 29%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 67%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.64 PPG, Stevenage 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.