Peterborough 3-0 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Peterborough (65%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Peterborough face Port Vale.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Port Vale travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough in League One (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Port Vale stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Port Vale have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Peterborough are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Peterborough: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Port Vale, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Peterborough 1–0 Port Vale — a Peterborough win.
The head-to-head data gives Peterborough an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Port Vale in-play tendencies (last 87 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 52% versus Port Vale 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Port Vale 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.01 xG and Port Vale 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.352 / defence 1.178 | Port Vale attack 0.608 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.176. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.352 — their 2.01 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Port Vale's attack rating of 0.608 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Peterborough's last 86 games and Port Vale's last 87.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 21% | Port Vale 15%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.55 | Draw 4.86 | Port Vale 6.72. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Peterborough 90% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 33 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 65% | Draw 21% | Port Vale 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Peterborough 2.01 / Port Vale 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.352 / def 1.178 | Port Vale attack 0.608 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Port Vale xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Port Vale kick off?
Peterborough vs Port Vale kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Peterborough 3 - 0 Port Vale.
Where is Peterborough vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Port Vale part of?
Peterborough vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 65% chance of winning, Port Vale a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Peterborough and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Peterborough vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.35x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 86 games and Port Vale's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.86
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.85
0.84
Port Vale xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
2%
50.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.84 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 87 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 46W 13D 28L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Port Vale's form line: 23W 20D 44L from 87 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Port Vale.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 44 home games (25W 8D 11L).
On the road, Port Vale have gone 9W 12D 23L from their last 44 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 0.99 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 87 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 46W 13D 28L in their last 87 games (1.74 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 23W 20D 44L in their last 87 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Port Vale away?
Peterborough's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.89 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Port Vale in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 16 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2022, when Peterborough won Peterborough 3-0 Port Vale.
Peterborough's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 5, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 April 2026: Peterborough 1-3 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Port Vale?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 46%, Port Vale 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Peterborough and 52% for Port Vale. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Port Vale in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Port Vale's.
Do Peterborough and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Peterborough's recent matches and 61% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Port Vale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Port Vale 3-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.01 xG and Port Vale 0.84 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port Vale landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.35 / defence 1.18 against Port Vale attack 0.61 / defence 1.14, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 65% | Draw 21% | Port Vale 15%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Port Vale 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (87 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Port Vale's trading profile (87 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.98 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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