Peterborough 0-4 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Northampton travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough in League One (matchday 41). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Peterborough — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Peterborough have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Northampton stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Northampton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Peterborough are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Peterborough have won 1, Northampton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2024, ended Peterborough 1–2 Northampton — a Northampton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Northampton trading profile (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Northampton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 65% | Northampton 48%). Note also that Northampton surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.68 xG and Northampton 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.238 / defence 1.064 | Northampton attack 0.886 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.112. Data: built from Peterborough's last 85 games and Northampton's last 86.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 25% | Northampton 23%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.93 | Draw 4.07 | Northampton 4.26. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 50% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 41 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 52% | Draw 25% | Northampton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Peterborough 1.68 / Northampton 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.238 / def 1.064 | Northampton attack 0.886 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Northampton xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Northampton FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Northampton kick off?
Peterborough vs Northampton kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Peterborough 0 - 4 Northampton.
Where is Peterborough vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Northampton part of?
Peterborough vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 52% chance of winning, Northampton a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Peterborough and Northampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.24) and Northampton's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 85 games and Northampton's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.07
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.72
1.05
Northampton xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.05 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 86 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 37W 19D 30L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 27W 22D 37L from 86 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.51 PPG, Northampton on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.72 PPG from their last 43 home games (21W 11D 11L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 10W 12D 21L from their last 43 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Northampton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 37W 19D 30L in their last 86 games (1.51 PPG), while Northampton have gone 27W 22D 37L in their last 86 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Northampton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.72 PPG; Northampton away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won Peterborough 5-1 Northampton.
Peterborough's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Northampton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 63%, Northampton 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Peterborough) and 51% (Northampton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Northampton in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Northampton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Peterborough's games and 60% of Northampton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Peterborough and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Peterborough's matches and 51% of Northampton's.
Do Peterborough and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Peterborough's recent matches and 67% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Northampton run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Peterborough 0-4 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.68 xG and Northampton 1.05 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Northampton outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.24 / defence 1.06 against Northampton attack 0.89 / defence 1.05, drawn from 85/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 52% | Draw 25% | Northampton 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 65%, Northampton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Northampton's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.51 PPG, Northampton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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