Peterborough 1-1 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Exeter City.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Exeter City meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Peterborough's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Exeter City (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Exeter City away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Peterborough, 0.80 for Exeter City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Peterborough edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Peterborough 2–1 Exeter City — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Exeter City half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 65% versus Exeter City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 69% | Exeter City 46%). Note also that Exeter City surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Peterborough recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.65 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.211 / defence 1.396 | Exeter City attack 0.837 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.170. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Exeter City's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 71 games and Exeter City's last 71.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 44% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 31%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.27 | Draw 4.07 | Exeter City 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Exeter City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 70% (last 10 home games) | Exeter City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Exeter City | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 44% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Peterborough 1.65 / Exeter City 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.211 / def 1.396 | Exeter City attack 0.837 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Exeter City xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Exeter City FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Exeter City kick off?
Peterborough vs Exeter City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 21 January 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Exeter City?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Exeter City.
Where is Peterborough vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Exeter City part of?
Peterborough vs Exeter City is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 44% chance of winning, Exeter City a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Peterborough and Exeter City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Exeter City's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Exeter City's attack (0.84x) against Peterborough's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 71 games and Exeter City's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.07
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.02
1.37
Exeter City xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Exeter City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.37 for Exeter City, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough's recent record stands at 30W 15D 26L from 71 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Exeter City, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 31L across 71 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Peterborough against 1.30 for Exeter City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 17W 8D 10L from their last 35 home games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Exeter City's away record stands at 14W 3D 18L across their last 35 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.04 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
Peterborough (Home) vs Exeter City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Blended
Exeter City
Blended
❓ Peterborough vs Exeter City Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 30W 15D 26L in their last 71 games (1.48 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 26W 14D 31L in their last 71 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Exeter City away?
Peterborough's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.69 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Exeter City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Exeter City won Exeter City 3-0 Peterborough on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Exeter City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Peterborough
2
Draws
3
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Exeter City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Exeter City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 3, Exeter City have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Exeter City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Peterborough 3-3 Exeter City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 63%, Exeter City 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Peterborough and 54% for Exeter City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 49% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Exeter City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Exeter City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Exeter City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Peterborough's recent matches and 40% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Exeter City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Peterborough's matches and 54% of Exeter City's.
Do Peterborough and Exeter City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Peterborough's recent matches and 77% of Exeter City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Exeter City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Peterborough and Exeter City drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.65 xG and Exeter City 1.37 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.21 / defence 1.40 against Exeter City attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 44% | Draw 25% | Exeter City 31%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 69%, Exeter City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Exeter City's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.48 PPG, Exeter City 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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