Peterborough 1-1 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Peterborough host Cardiff at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Peterborough — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Weston Homes Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Cardiff have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cardiff have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cardiff are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Peterborough register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cardiff in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Cardiff and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Cardiff winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Peterborough in-play tendencies (85 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (85 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 62% versus Cardiff 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Cardiff 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.97 xG and Cardiff 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.446 / defence 1.092 | Cardiff attack 1.403 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.446 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff have an above-average attack strength of 1.403 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 85 Peterborough games / 39 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Cardiff 3.03. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cardiff (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 60% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Peterborough 1.97 / Cardiff 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.446 / def 1.092 | Cardiff attack 1.403 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Cardiff xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cardiff kick off?
Peterborough vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cardiff?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Cardiff.
Where is Peterborough vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cardiff part of?
Peterborough vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 45% chance of winning, Cardiff a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Peterborough and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cardiff?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Cardiff in?
Peterborough (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Cardiff's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
45%
2.22
22%
4.64
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.65
1.68
Cardiff xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
5%
21.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.68 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 85 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 28W 17D 40L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 32W 25D 28L from 85 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.19 PPG, Cardiff on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 11W 17D 13L from 41 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Peterborough are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.42 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 17D 40L in their last 85 games (1.19 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 32W 25D 28L in their last 85 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cardiff away?
Peterborough's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.41 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Peterborough and Cardiff runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2022, when Cardiff won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Peterborough
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cardiff?
From 4 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 0, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cardiff?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 58%, Cardiff 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 51% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Peterborough's games and 63% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 51% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Cardiff tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Cardiff share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Cardiff finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.97 xG and Cardiff 1.68 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.45 / defence 1.09 against Cardiff attack 1.40 / defence 0.97, drawn from 85/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 45% | Draw 22% | Cardiff 33%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.19 PPG, Cardiff 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.