Peterborough 1-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Peterborough at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cambridge United have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 0.70 PPG lead over Cambridge United (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Cambridge United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Cambridge United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.31 xG and Cambridge United 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.368 / defence 0.809 | Cambridge United attack 0.984 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.238. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Peterborough games / 62 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 67% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 15%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Cambridge United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 30% | Cambridge United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 67% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 2.31 / Cambridge United 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.368 / def 0.809 | Cambridge United attack 0.984 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cambridge United xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Peterborough 1 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 67% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.37) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.98x) against Peterborough's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.46
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.30
0.98
Cambridge United xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
10%
10.10
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
1%
69.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.98 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 18W 11D 33L from 62 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 27L across 62 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Peterborough against 1.24 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 12W 8D 11L from 31 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 9W 6D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.19 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 18W 11D 33L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 21W 14D 27L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Peterborough's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.42 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Cambridge United 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 61% (Cambridge United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 61% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Peterborough's matches and 61% of Cambridge United's.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Cambridge United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 1-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.31 xG and Cambridge United 0.98 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cambridge United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.37 / defence 0.81 against Cambridge United attack 0.98 / defence 1.34, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 67% | Draw 18% | Cambridge United 15%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Cambridge United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.05 PPG, Cambridge United 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.