Peterborough 0-5 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 6W 1D 3L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Bolton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bolton are 0.80 PPG clear of Peterborough in recent League One fixtures (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Bolton and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Bolton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bolton — key trading statistics (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 47% versus Bolton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Bolton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.34 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.107 / defence 1.056 | Bolton attack 1.127 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.145. Data: 27 Peterborough games / 76 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Bolton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 50% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 1.34 / Bolton 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.107 / def 1.056 | Bolton attack 1.127 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Bolton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bolton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Bolton kick off?
Peterborough vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Peterborough 0 - 5 Bolton.
Where is Peterborough vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bolton part of?
Peterborough vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 36% chance of winning, Bolton a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.11) and Bolton's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.13x) against Peterborough's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 27/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.70
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.70
1.36
Bolton xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.36 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 12D 38L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.66 PPG from 73 outings (35W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Peterborough — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 14W 8D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.29 points per game from 35 outings (13W 6D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.44 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 23W 12D 38L in their last 73 games (1.11 PPG), while Bolton have gone 35W 16D 22L in their last 73 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bolton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.43 PPG; Bolton away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bolton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 0-5 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Peterborough
3
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 43%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 46% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 34% of games; Bolton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 46% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Bolton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bolton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bolton run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Peterborough 0-5 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.34 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bolton outscored their 1.36 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Bolton attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 36% | Draw 27% | Bolton 37%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Bolton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bolton's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.