Peterborough 3-3 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 46. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 6W 0D 4L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bolton have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Peterborough against 1.70 for Bolton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bolton in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Bolton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Bolton — key trading statistics (93 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 50% versus Bolton 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 63% | Bolton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.78 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.491 / defence 1.091 | Bolton attack 1.042 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.491 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 91 Peterborough games / 91 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 23% | Bolton 29%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Bolton 3.45. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Bolton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 23% | Bolton 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Peterborough 1.78 / Bolton 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.491 / def 1.091 | Bolton attack 1.042 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bolton xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Bolton kick off?
Peterborough vs Bolton kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Peterborough 3 - 3 Bolton.
Where is Peterborough vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Bolton part of?
Peterborough vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Bolton a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Peterborough and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bolton (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.49) and Bolton's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.04x) against Peterborough's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 91/91 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.32
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.13
1.36
Bolton xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.36 for Bolton, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 93 games, going 50W 13D 30L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.81 PPG from 93 outings (48W 24D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Peterborough against 1.81 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 27W 8D 11L across 46 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.52 points per game from 46 outings (19W 13D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.57 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Bolton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 50W 13D 30L in their last 93 games (1.75 PPG), while Bolton have gone 48W 24D 21L in their last 93 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Bolton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.93 PPG; Bolton away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bolton in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 0-5 on 11 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Peterborough
3
Draws
4
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Bolton?
From 8 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 1, Bolton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Peterborough 3-1 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 46%, Bolton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Peterborough) and 37% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bolton in 37%; Bolton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Peterborough's recent matches and 44% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Peterborough's recent games and 37% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Bolton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bolton in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Bolton share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Bolton finished level at 3-3 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.78 xG and Bolton 1.36 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bolton outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.49 / defence 1.09 against Bolton attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 23% | Bolton 29%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 63%, Bolton 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bolton's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.75 PPG, Bolton 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.