Notts County vs Plymouth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Notts County host Plymouth at Meadow Lane in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.80 (Plymouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Notts County register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Plymouth in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Notts County in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 54% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 54% | Plymouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.35 xG and Plymouth 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.930 / defence 1.088 | Plymouth attack 0.967 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.272. Data: 4 Notts County games / 50 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 36% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 35%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Plymouth 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 70% | Plymouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 36% | Draw 29% | Plymouth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Notts County 1.35 / Plymouth 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.930 / def 1.088 | Plymouth attack 0.967 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Notts County (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Plymouth xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Plymouth kick off?
Notts County vs Plymouth is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Meadow Lane.
Where is Notts County vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Plymouth part of?
Notts County vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 36% chance of winning, Plymouth a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Notts County and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Plymouth in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 0.93x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.50
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Plymouth xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Notts County and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Notts County and 1.34 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Notts County have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 27W 11D 12L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth's form line: 23W 8D 19L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.84 PPG, Plymouth on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Notts County have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 12W 4D 9L from 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 50 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 games (1.84 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Plymouth away?
Notts County's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.92 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Notts County or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Plymouth in 26%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 56%, Plymouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Notts County) and 56% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Notts County's recent matches and 48% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Notts County's matches and 56% of Plymouth's.
Do Notts County and Plymouth tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.