Lincoln 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Stevenage at LNER Stadium in League One (matchday 36). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lincoln — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lincoln's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Stevenage have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lincoln at 1.90 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Lincoln, 1 for Stevenage and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Nov 2023, ended Lincoln 0–1 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 41% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lincoln 31% | Stevenage 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lincoln surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Stevenage have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.21 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.893 / defence 0.729 | Stevenage attack 1.063 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Lincoln have a tight defence (rating 0.729), which is pulling Stevenage's projected output down. Data: built from Lincoln's last 81 games and Stevenage's last 34.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.36 | Draw 3.42 | Stevenage 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lincoln are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lincoln 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, matchday 36 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lincoln 1.21 / Stevenage 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.893 / def 0.729 | Stevenage attack 1.063 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stevenage xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Stevenage kick off?
Lincoln vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Lincoln vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Stevenage part of?
Lincoln vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 42% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lincoln vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.89x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 81 games and Stevenage's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.42
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Stevenage xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
8%
11.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.93 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 31D 22L from 80 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 41W 21D 18L across 80 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lincoln heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 14W 19D 6L from their last 39 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 15W 13D 11L across their last 39 away games, a 1.49 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.36 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Stevenage in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Lincoln (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Lincoln vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 31D 22L in their last 80 games (1.40 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 41W 21D 18L in their last 80 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Stevenage away?
Lincoln's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.56 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stevenage in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lincoln
3
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 2, Stevenage have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Stevenage 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Stevenage?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 44%, Stevenage 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Lincoln and 41% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Stevenage in 31%; Lincoln have failed to score in 31% of games; Stevenage in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lincoln's recent matches and 49% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lincoln and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Lincoln's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Lincoln's recent matches and 77% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Lincoln and Stevenage drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.21 xG and Stevenage 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Stevenage attack 1.06 / defence 1.02, drawn from 81/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 42% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 28%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 31%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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