Lincoln 2-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lincoln at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Charlton meet at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lincoln have posted 1W 2D 2L at LNER Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lincoln, 0.80 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lincoln have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charlton in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Charlton — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lincoln 64% and Charlton 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 46% | Charlton 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.850 / defence 1.096 | Charlton attack 0.847 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.262. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Lincoln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Lincoln games / 11 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 37% | Draw 28% | Charlton 35%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lincoln 60% | Charlton 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 37% | Draw 28% | Charlton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lincoln 1.20 / Charlton 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.850 / def 1.096 | Charlton attack 0.847 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Charlton xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Charlton kick off?
Lincoln vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Lincoln 2 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Lincoln vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Charlton part of?
Lincoln vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 37% chance of winning, Charlton a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lincoln and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Charlton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.85x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.85x) against Lincoln's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.59
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.37
1.17
Charlton xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.17 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Lincoln against 0.82 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.09 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lincoln have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Charlton in 73%.
Last 11 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Charlton have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Charlton away?
Lincoln's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.00 PPG; Charlton away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
4
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Charlton?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Lincoln, 100% for Charlton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Lincoln and 80% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lincoln's games and 100% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Lincoln's matches and 80% of Charlton's.
Do Lincoln and Charlton tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Charlton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lincoln edge out Charlton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Charlton 2-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.17 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lincoln beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 37% | Draw 28% | Charlton 35%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Charlton 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.09 PPG, Charlton 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.