Forest Green 0-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forest Green vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 40 as Forest Green welcome Derby to The Bolt New Lawn. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Forest Green have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Forest Green's home record at The Bolt New Lawn: 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Forest Green are significantly better at The Bolt New Lawn than their overall form suggests.
Derby — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Derby's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Forest Green's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Forest Green register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Forest Green, 1 for Derby and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2022, ended 0–4 with Derby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Forest Green trading profile (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 51% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 42% | Derby 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.06 xG and Derby 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.655 / defence 1.274 | Derby attack 1.035 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.109. Forest Green's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derby bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Forest Green games / 39 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 27% | Draw 27% | Derby 46%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Derby 2.17. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Forest Green 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 27% | Draw 27% | Derby 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Forest Green 1.06 / Derby 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.655 / def 1.274 | Derby attack 1.035 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Derby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Derby kick off?
Forest Green vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Derby?
Forest Green 0 - 2 Derby.
Where is Forest Green vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Derby part of?
Forest Green vs Derby is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 27% chance of winning, Derby a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Forest Green and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Forest Green 0W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are Forest Green and Derby in?
Forest Green (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Forest Green's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
27%
3.69
27%
3.71
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.52
1.46
Derby xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.93
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.46 for Derby, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forest Green's recent record stands at 29W 23D 33L from 85 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 32W 23D 30L across 85 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forest Green on 1.29 PPG, Derby on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Forest Green have managed 19W 5D 18L from 42 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 9W 12D 21L across 42 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forest Green are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.22 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Derby in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 29W 23D 33L in their last 85 games (1.29 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 23D 30L in their last 85 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Derby away?
Forest Green's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.48 PPG; Derby away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Derby?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 0, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Forest Green 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 38%, Derby 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Forest Green) and 38% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Forest Green have failed to score in 31% of games; Derby in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Forest Green's recent matches and 45% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Forest Green's recent games and 38% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Derby tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Forest Green.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Forest Green 0-2 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.06 xG and Derby 1.46 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Forest Green fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.66 / defence 1.27 against Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 27% | Draw 27% | Derby 46%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 42%, Derby 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.29 PPG, Derby 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Forest Green (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.