Derby 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Wigan meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall League One record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Derby haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wigan (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wigan haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wigan — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Wigan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 44% | Wigan 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.68 xG and Wigan 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.017 / defence 0.924 | Wigan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.158. Data: 46 Derby games / 0 Wigan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Wigan 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Derby (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 40% | Wigan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Derby 1.68 / Wigan 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.017 / def 0.924 | Wigan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Derby (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Wigan xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Wigan kick off?
Derby vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Wigan?
Derby 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is Derby vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Wigan part of?
Derby vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 55% chance of winning, Wigan a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wigan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Wigan in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derby's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.85x) against Derby's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.10
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Derby xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Wigan xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Derby and 0.91 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby's recent record stands at 21W 13D 12L from 46 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. Derby haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 21L across 46 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. Wigan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wigan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derby have managed 13W 6D 4L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 5W 8D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Pre-Season
Wigan
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Wigan in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 13D 12L in their last 46 games (1.65 PPG), while Wigan have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Wigan away?
Derby's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.96 PPG; Wigan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Derby or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wigan in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Wigan?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Wigan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2023, when Wigan 0-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Wigan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Derby) and 39% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wigan in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 61% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Derby's recent games and 39% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Wigan tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Wigan in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.68 xG and Wigan 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Wigan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 55% | Draw 24% | Wigan 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Wigan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Wigan 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.