Derby 2-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 28 as Derby welcome Bolton to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Derby) versus 1.70 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 0 for Bolton and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bolton in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 46% versus Bolton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 41% | Bolton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.47 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.218 / defence 0.843 | Bolton attack 1.110 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.137. Data: 25 Derby games / 72 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 28% | Bolton 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Bolton 3.70. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | Bolton 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 46% | Draw 28% | Bolton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Derby 1.47 / Bolton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.218 / def 0.843 | Bolton attack 1.110 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Derby (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bolton xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Bolton kick off?
Derby vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Bolton?
Derby 2 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Derby vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Bolton part of?
Derby vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 46% chance of winning, Bolton a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Derby and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 0W.
What form are Derby and Bolton in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bolton (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Bolton's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.64
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Derby xG
Total xG
2.53
1.06
Bolton xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Derby and 1.06 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Derby have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 26W 21D 24L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bolton's form line: 33W 17D 21L from 71 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.39 PPG, Bolton on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bolton have gone 13W 7D 15L from 35 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Bolton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 26W 21D 24L in their last 71 games (1.39 PPG), while Bolton have gone 33W 17D 21L in their last 71 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Bolton away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Bolton away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Derby or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bolton in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Bolton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Derby 1-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Bolton?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Bolton 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 43% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bolton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 43% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 43% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Bolton tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bolton in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Bolton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Bolton 2-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.47 xG and Bolton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.22 / defence 0.84 against Bolton attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 46% | Draw 28% | Bolton 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 41%, Bolton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bolton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.39 PPG, Bolton 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.