Cheltenham 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Plymouth at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cheltenham host Plymouth at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Cheltenham have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham at Completely-Suzuki Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Plymouth's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cheltenham's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cheltenham have won 0, Plymouth 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 54% versus Plymouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 50% | Plymouth 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.25 xG and Plymouth 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.918 / defence 0.942 | Plymouth attack 1.196 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.138. Data: 66 Cheltenham games / 68 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 35% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 40% | Plymouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 35% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Cheltenham 1.25 / Plymouth 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.918 / def 0.942 | Plymouth attack 1.196 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Plymouth xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Plymouth kick off?
Cheltenham vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Cheltenham 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Cheltenham vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Plymouth part of?
Cheltenham vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 35% chance of winning, Plymouth a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cheltenham and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 2W.
What form are Cheltenham and Plymouth in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.92x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.59
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Plymouth xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.28 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 21D 25L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 36W 16D 14L from 66 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (15W 8D 10L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 13W 12D 8L from 33 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 20W 21D 25L in their last 66 games (1.23 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 36W 16D 14L in their last 66 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Plymouth away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.61 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plymouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cheltenham and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
0
Draws
4
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 0, Plymouth have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Plymouth 4-2 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 54%, Plymouth 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cheltenham) and 54% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Plymouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cheltenham's games and 61% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cheltenham's recent games and 54% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Plymouth tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Cheltenham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cheltenham 0-1 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.25 xG and Plymouth 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cheltenham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Plymouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 35% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 50%, Plymouth 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.