Cheltenham 2-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 43 sees Gillingham travel to Jonny-Rocks Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Gillingham have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gillingham away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cheltenham 1.40 PPG, Gillingham 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cheltenham, 0 for Gillingham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Cheltenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cheltenham trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Gillingham trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 64% versus Gillingham 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 55% | Gillingham 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.25 xG and Gillingham 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 1.054 / defence 1.111 | Gillingham attack 0.728 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.149. Data: 42 Cheltenham games / 42 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 26%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Gillingham 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cheltenham as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 50% | Gillingham 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 42% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Cheltenham 1.25 / Gillingham 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 1.054 / def 1.111 | Gillingham attack 0.728 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gillingham xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Gillingham kick off?
Cheltenham vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Gillingham?
Cheltenham 2 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Cheltenham vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Gillingham part of?
Cheltenham vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 42% chance of winning, Gillingham a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cheltenham and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Gillingham?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Gillingham in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cheltenham's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.13
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.18
0.93
Gillingham xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.93 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 13W 15D 14L from 42 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 20L across 42 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.29 PPG, Gillingham on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Cheltenham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gillingham's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.76 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Gillingham away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.71 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cheltenham's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
4
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Gillingham?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Gillingham have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when Cheltenham 2-1 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Gillingham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 57%, Gillingham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cheltenham) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 52% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cheltenham's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Gillingham tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Gillingham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Gillingham finished level at 2-2 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.25 xG and Gillingham 0.93 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gillingham outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Gillingham attack 0.73 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 42% | Draw 32% | Gillingham 26%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 55%, Gillingham 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gillingham's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.29 PPG, Gillingham 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.