Burton Albion 3-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37%, yet in-form Bolton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Burton Albion vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Bolton in League One, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Tuesday 15 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bolton (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bolton away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bolton arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for Bolton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 58% versus Bolton 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 48% | Bolton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.26 xG and Bolton 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.985 / defence 1.213 | Bolton attack 0.830 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.230. Data: 31 Burton Albion games / 31 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 28% | Bolton 36%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bolton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Burton Albion 50% | Bolton 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 28% | Bolton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.26 / Bolton 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.985 / def 1.213 | Bolton attack 0.830 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Bolton xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Bolton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Burton Albion 3 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Bolton part of?
Burton Albion vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 37% chance of winning, Bolton a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Bolton?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Bolton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Bolton (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.98x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (0.83x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.61
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.50
1.24
Bolton xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.24 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 7D 13L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.45 PPG from 31 outings (13W 6D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.45 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.52 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 31 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Bolton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 11W 7D 13L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Bolton have gone 13W 6D 12L in their last 31 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Bolton away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.56 PPG; Bolton away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 3-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
5
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Bolton?
From 10 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Bolton have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 62%, Bolton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burton Albion) and 44% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Bolton in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 38% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burton Albion's recent games and 44% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Bolton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bolton in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bolton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Bolton 3-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.26 xG and Bolton 1.24 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Bolton attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 37% | Draw 28% | Bolton 36%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 48%, Bolton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.29 PPG, Bolton 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Bolton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.