Burton Albion 1-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 5W 2D 3L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Burton Albion at 1.30 PPG versus AFC Wimbledon's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for AFC Wimbledon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | AFC Wimbledon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.72 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.201 / defence 1.127 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.765 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.236. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Burton Albion games / 24 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 23%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Wimbledon 4.35. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 70% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 52% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Burton Albion 1.72 / AFC Wimbledon 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.201 / def 1.127 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.765 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 52% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 1 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against AFC Wimbledon's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.93
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.79
1.07
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 9L across 24 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.33 PPG, AFC Wimbledon on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burton Albion have managed 7W 2D 3L from 12 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Burton Albion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 24 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 9D 9L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.92 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burton Albion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Burton Albion's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
2
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Burton Albion 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 67%, AFC Wimbledon 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Burton Albion) and 58% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 42% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Burton Albion's matches and 58% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.72 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.07 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.20 / defence 1.13 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.77 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 52% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 23%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, AFC Wimbledon 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.33 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.