AFC Wimbledon 1-2 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wigan (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 0W 7D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AFC Wimbledon's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Wigan's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 0W, Wigan 2W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Wigan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wigan — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 34% versus Wigan 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AFC Wimbledon 36% | Wigan 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.29 xG and Wigan 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.907 / defence 1.024 | Wigan attack 0.976 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.037. Data: 15 AFC Wimbledon games / 61 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 28% | Wigan 30%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Wigan 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Wigan 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 28% | Wigan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.29 / Wigan 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.907 / def 1.024 | Wigan attack 0.976 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wigan xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 2 Wigan.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 42% chance of winning, Wigan a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Wigan 2W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Wigan in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Wigan (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (0.98x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.59
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
Wigan xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.04 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon come into this having played 61 games, going 29W 14D 18L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.21 PPG from 61 outings (17W 23D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Wimbledon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Wigan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AFC Wimbledon's home form reads 18W 6D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (6W 15D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 0.95 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Wigan in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 games (1.66 PPG), while Wigan have gone 17W 23D 21L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Wigan away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.94 PPG; Wigan away: 1.06 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Wigan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
AFC Wimbledon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan?
From 5 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Wigan have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 26%, Wigan 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for AFC Wimbledon and 29% for Wigan.
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Wigan in 32%; Wigan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 48% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 29% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Wigan tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Wigan in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wigan defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat AFC Wimbledon 1-2 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.29 xG and Wigan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Wigan attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 42% | Draw 28% | Wigan 30%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Wigan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Wigan 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Wigan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.